While it’s no longer an opportunity for Conor McGregor to make UFC history by becoming a multi-divisional champion, Saturdays UFC 196 event still holds a lot of hype and promise to be a great night of MMA as we continue on the road to UFC 200. We certainly didn’t lose any entertainment value in the main event when Nate Diaz stepped up on short notice to replace Rafael dos Anjos, and in case you lost a bit of interest (how could you?) in that matchup with history being removed from the occasion, we still have a main event-caliber Women’s Bantamweight championship fight between champion Holly Holm and Miesha Tate, not to mention an exciting undercard of fights leading up to the double main event. PWP has you covered on every fight from the Fight Pass Prelims to the Main Event:
Fight Pass Early Prelims
Teruto Ishihara (8-2-2) vs. Julian Erosa (15-3)
Erosa, a cast member on Season 22 of “The Ultimate Fighter” under coach Urijah Faber, won his fight to get into the “TUF” house, then won his quarterfinal matchup with a split decision over Abner Lloveras. Ishihara was part of the UFC’s “Road to UFC: Japan” series in that country and reached the final of the tournament against Mizuto Hirota. That fight, which took place at UFC Fight Night 75 in September, ended in a rare split draw. The 24-year-old Ishihara now will fight for the first time since that bout and will fight outside Japan for the first time when he comes to Las Vegas. Iahihara will be looking for his first win within the UFC, but his knockout power will be key in this fight, as he has six knockout wins in seven career victories.
Prediction: Ishihara starts the night with a bang and knocks out Julian Erosa for his first UFC win.
Fight Pass Early Prelims
Jason Saggo (10-2) vs. Justin Salas (12-6)
Justin Salas returns to the Octagon after almost 20 months out of action to take on Jason Saggo. Salas last fought at UFC Fight Night 45 in July 2014, suffering a TKO loss to Joe Proctor. Meanwhile. Saggo most recently fought at UFC Fight Night 54 in October 2014, where he suffered a split-decision loss to Paul Felder. Both men will be looking to redeem themselves, and for Saggo, to begin another win streak like the five bout winning streak which was snapped by Felder. Will “ring rust” play a factor in this matchup?
Prediction: Jason Saggo wins via decision.
Fight Pass Early Prelims
Diego Sanchez (27-8) vs. Jim Miller (25-6)
Two names many are extremely familiar with, most may be surprised to find this fight on the Fight Pass Prelims, even as the feature bout. However, with Sanchez going 4-6 in his last ten fights, and Miller losing three of his last four, both men will have plenty to prove on Saturday evening. Sanchez competed at featherweight in his last outing, a unanimous decision loss to Ricardo Lamas at UFC Fight Night in Mexico. The former lightweight title challenger and TUF 1 winner hasn’t fought at 155 lbs since winning a controversial split decision over Ross Pearson back in June 2014. Meanwhile, Miller once rode a seven-fight winning streak towards title contention at 155, but Benson Henderson snapped the streak in August 2011, and it’s been downhill ever since. Miller is 5-4 (1 NC) in his last 10 bouts, and has fallen out of the top 15 rankings.
Prediction: It may not conjure memories of his epic battle with Clay Guida, but Diego Sanchez does enough to win this one by decision.
FS1 Prelims
#11 Darren Elkins (20-5) vs. Chas Skelly (15-1)
Expected to kick off the FS1 prelims, Darren Elkins and Chas Skelly will square off Saturday night. Elkins is 3-3 in his last six contests inside the octagon, while Skelly is riding as four fight win streak. Elkins owns wins over the likes of Hatsu Hioki, Duane Ludwig, and Diego Brandao during his UFC career. For Skelly, the 30-year-old Texan has rebounded from a UFC debut loss to Mirsad Bektic with wins over Tom Niinimaki, Sean Soriano, Jim Alers and Kevin Souza.
Prediction: Skelly continues his momentum with a submission victory over Elkins.
FS1 Prelims
Marcelo Guimaraes (9-1-1) vs. Vitor Miranda (12-4)
A middleweight battle between Marcelo Guimaraes and Vitor Miranda takes place on FS1 this Saturday. Miranda, finalist of the third season of TUF Brazil as a heavyweight, cut down to 185 pounds after the show and scored back-to-back knockouts over Jake Collier and Clint Hester. Meanwhile, Guimaraes has fought sparingly, making his debut as a middleweight in his last bout, defeating Andy Enz via decision. The 32-year-old Brazilian has fought just three times since joining the promotion in 2012, including a split verdict over Daniel Stittgen in his debut at UFC on Fuel TV 4 and a second-round knockout loss to Hyun Gyu Lim at UFC on Fuel TV 8.
Prediction: Vitor Miranda wins via decision.
FS1 Prelims
Erick Silva (18-6) vs. Nordine Taleb (10-3)
Erick Silva, who earned his first six UFC victories by first-round stoppage, will battle Nordine Taleb in a welterweight battle on FS1 this Saturday. Silva joined Kings MMA for this training camp, will be looking to rebound from a split decision loss to Neil Magny in his last fight. Taleb, meanwhile, had won his first three fights inside the Octagon before being submitted by Warlley Alves, a teammate of Silva. If the earlier prelims hadn’t already, this fight should really get the night moving in an exciting direction.
Prediction: Erick Silva still looks like a special talent to me. Silva by TKO.
FS1 Prelims
Brandon Thatch (11-3) vs.Siyar Bahadurzada (21-6-1)
Initially planned for the Feb. 21 UFC Fight Night card in Pittsburgh, Thatch and Bahadurzada will instead fight Saturday in Las Vegas. According to the UFC, Thatch is using a medication permitted under the UFC/USADA, WADA and Nevada State Athletic Commission anti-doping rules, but was unable to get the necessary clearance from the Pennsylvania State Athletic Commission, leading to the postponement. Thatch will be looking to record his first win in 16 months, as after scoring back-to-back wins in his first UFC appearances, “Rukus” tapped to Ben Henderson and Gunnar Nelson in subsequent bouts. Bahadurzada is 1-2 under the UFC banner, recently suffering consecutive decision losses to Dong Hyun Kim and John Howard.
Prediction: Brandon Thatch gets back on the winning track with a decision victory on Saturday.
UFC 196 Main Card
#10 Valentina Shevchenko (12-1) vs.#4 Amanda Nunes (11-4)
Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko battle in the bantamweight division this Saturday at UFC 196, with Nunes looking to push her name up the ranks towards a title show, and Shevchenko looking to build in a debut win. Nunes is looking for her third straight win, and her best chance will be to get to Valentina early, as Nunes has built a reputation as one of the most dominant finishers in the women’s bantamweight division. Meanwhile, Shevchenko looked great in her UFC debut, picking up a win after accepting the fight on only eight days notice, and could be poised to make a big jump up the rankings if she’s able to pull off another upset against Nunes.
Prediction: Shevchenko shocks many with another upset win, finishing Nunes with a TKO victory.
UFC 196 Main Card
#12 Corey Anderson (8-1) vs. Tom Lawlor (9-5, 1 NC)
After winning The Ultimate Fighter 19, Corey Anderson has proven himself to be a solid member of the Light Heavyweight division. He’s won four of his last five fights, and will be looking to continue his momentum with a win on PPV against Tom Lawlor. Lawlor is an uneven veteran, and while Anderson should have an advantage in this fight, Lawlor’s always possessed one-punch power, and if the fight moves to the ground, Anderson will need to watch his neck, or Lawlor will choke him out. That being said, Anderson’s wrestling ability should be enough to keep him from the mat, and barring any major mistake, should help him to another UFC victory, this one on a grand stage.
Prediction: Anderson with the TKO victory keeps moving up the Light Heavyweight rankings.
UFC 196 Main Card
#13 Gian Villante (14-6) vs. Illr Latifi (12-4, 1 NC)
Long Island’s Gian Villante will try to make it two in a row against the Swedish fighter Illr Latifi. The 30-year old Villante is coming off a first-round knockout of Anthony Perosh at UFC 193 in Melbourne, Australia. He’s won three of four overall, dating back to a split-decision victory over Sean O’Connell in June 2014. Latifi has also won back-to-back fights, both via knockout, including his own victory over Sean O’Connell at UFC Fight Night 81 in Boston. Now, Latifi returns to the Octagon only 48 days after the Boston fight to take on Villante in an effort to enter his name into the rankings.
Prediction: This one has the feeling of a bit of a brawl, and I believe Villante comes out on top. KO victory for Villante.
UFC 196 Main Card
Women’s Bantamweight Championship Fight
C Holly Holm (10-0) vs. #2 Miesha Tate (17-5)
After her shocking defeat of Ronda Rousey, most expected the UFC to hold Holly Holm out of any type of fight until they could setup the rematch. Instead, Dana White decided to reward Tate, who is on a four fight win streak, with a shot at the new champion while Ronda Rousey prepares for a return later this year. Tate should be rejuvenated at the thought of having a Championship opportunity against someone who isn’t Rousey, as she’d had virtually no success against the former champion, but Tate present a completely different variety of issues. Tate will be able to hang in with Holm on the feet, but ultimately Holm will win this fight if it’s determined by striking. Tate will need to overcome Holm’s clinch and takedown defense and get this fight to the ground, where Tate is in her wheelhouse, and Holm’s submission defense is generally untested.
Prediction: Tate is game, and gives Holm a challenge, but is ultimately unable to get the fight to the ground long enough to capitalize, and Holm wins via TKO to retain and continue the Holm/Rousey hype.
UFC 196 Main Card
Conor McGregor (19-2) vs. Nate Diaz (19-10)
There was lots of chaos after Rafael dos Anjos had to withdraw from his scheduled fight with “The Notorious” Conor McGregor, with reactions of all sorts. McGregor, however, remained largely quiet – until his replacement was named. Nate Diaz was the one chosen to step up on short notice and challenge McGregor, and while there’s no title or history on the line anymore, there’s still plenty of intrigue. While Diaz hasn’t seen the same type of success lately that McGregor has, writing him off in this fight would be a mistake, and an oversight of the talent Diaz brings to the table. Diaz’s striking, while not known for knockout power, is technically vicious, and McGregor will need to adjust to fighting a larger opponent than he’s used to, as well as not having the reach advantage he often enjoys. Also, Diaz will not be affected by McGregor’s personality and verbal barbs leading up to the fight, as many seemingly have been in the past. That being said, McGregor has been as impressive of a roll as we’ve ever seen in MMA, and Diaz is now stepping into the Octagon with him without the benefit of a training camp.
Prediction: While I doubt Diaz gets knocked out, I simply don’t see a way Diaz can finish McGregor, while I can see multiple ways Conor can finish Diaz. McGregor wins by TKO.
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