This article was originally written on Wednesday night, and my opening spoke about how Saturday night was poised to be not only the biggest night in UFC history, but also the biggest night in MMA history. The article was completed, and set for final revision and release Thursday morning.
Then I woke up Thursday morning, and saw the news about Jon Jones.
In case you’ve not heard, Jon Jones has been removed from UFC 200 due to a potential violation in a USADA drug test administered on June 16. Due to this, the returning Brock Lesnar vs. Mark Hunt will be the main event of the show, with Frankie Edgar vs. Jose Aldo becoming the semi-main event. While UFC president Dana White indicated that a new opponent for Cormier hasn’t been ruled out, it’s safe to say there is no opponent readily available whose close to the stature of Jon Jones. This is a massive blow to both Saturday’s event and UFC itself, as it continues to magnify one of the biggest problems the sport has: the inability to guarantee health and behavior before a fight, leading to weeks and months of hype and publicity being wasted when a fighter suddenly cannot compete. It also raises larger questions about Jon Jones’ future with UFC, as Dana White mentioned that Jones may be facing a possible two-year ban for this failed test, and Jones has certainly had his share of issues leading up to this.
Now, while this news certainly hurts Saturday’s event, it doesn’t ruin it completely. One benefit of being the most stacked fight card in history is that even after removing the biggest fight on the card, there are still three other main event caliber fights, and the card remains stacked all the way through. Fight fans should still be excited for UFC 200, even while being disappointed in Jon Jones. So, getting to the most important question about Saturday’s huge event, whose gonna win?
Click through the slide show for analysis and predictions on EVERY fight coming up this Saturday night, and let your opinions be heard in the comments section below, as well as on social media!
Jim Miller (25-8-0) vs. “The Fireball Kid” Takanori Gomi (35-11-0)
With so many eye-popping fights on this card, many will sleep on just how exciting the prelims for Saturday’s event could be, and that begins with Jim Miller taking on Takanori Gomi. This is a clear clash of styles, with Gomi looking for the knockout, while Miller is expected to attempt to drag Gomi to the ground and grind out a submission. Gomi’s going to need to avoid the ground at all costs, as his submission defense is porous, having been submitted six times in his career. Gomi may be able to catch Miller, but that’s just about his only hope here, and I expect Miller to wear Gomi down and find his way to victory.
Prediction: Jim Miller wins via submission
#8 Gegard Mousasi (38-6-2) vs. #15 Thiago Santos (13-3-0)
After the injury to Derek Brunson, Thiago Santos jumped into this fight, and he looks to continue his flashy winning streak after knocking out 3 of his last 4 opponents. However, none of Santos’ prior victims can truly compare to Mousasi in terms of chin. While Mousasi was knocked out by Uriah Hall recently, that was also Mousasi’s first knockout defeat in 44 professional fights, and I’m not quite ready to believe that type of ending will become a pattern for Mousasi. Not to mention the fact that Mousasi will likely have the advantage when it comes to technical striking, and I expect him to dominate once he’s able to close the distance and get past Santos’ length and kicks. Add in the fact that Mousasi could decide to take Santos to the ground, where he’d enjoy a large advantage as well, and it becomes difficult to foresee a successful strategy for Santos in this one.
Prediction: Mousasi picks up the win by decision
“The Nightmare” Diego Sanchez (28-8-0) vs. Joe Lauzon (24-12-0)
Boy, is this one going to be a fun one. These are simply two of the toughest and most tenacious fighters to ever step into an octagon, and all signs point to an extremely active and entertaining fight this Saturday night. This fight is basically a dead heat from an oddsmaker’s perspective, mainly because neither of these guys are likely to be finished. Lauzon likely has the submission advantage, which may serve to dispel Sanchez’s ground and pound offense a bit, but it’s likely these two just try to electrify the crowd with a barrage of strikes. Admittedly, this is near the top of the list of fights I’m looking forward to the most Saturday night.
Decision: Lauzon wins a thriller by decision, and sets the tone for a great night of fights.
“Super” Sage Northcutt (7-1-0) vs. “Wasabi” Enrique Marin (9-3-0)
Many people celebrated Sage Northcutt’s loss to Bryan Barbarena due to the hype around Sage coming into that fight, however make no mistake: Northcutt’s still a big deal, and I’m expecting Sage to come out focused and ready to avenge his only loss of his career Saturday night. Enrique Marin will likely be able to tag Northcutt a couple of times, however I don’t expect him to be capable of getting Northcutt to the ground, while I expect Northcutt to see an advantage on the feet, and a bi advantage should he decide to wrestle Marin to the ground. Expect the hype train to get back on the rails after this one.
Decision: “Super” Sage gets the victory via TKO
#3 Raphael Assuncao (23-4-0) vs. #1 TJ Dillashaw (12-3-0)
This is about the point where the UFC 200 card begins to just get plain stupid in a wonderfully awesome way. Our second fight on the FS1 prelims features the #1 and #3 Bantamweight fighters in the world. That’s just plain ridiculous, and a real treat for fight fans. Dillashaw will be looking to avenge his 2013 loss to Assuncao, where he suffered a split-decision loss, and will be walking into the octagon Saturday as a completely different fighter than he was in his first encounter with Assuncao. In comparison, we haven’t seen Assuncao inside the octagon since October of 2014, and there are questions about what type of fighter we will see. That being said, Assuncao has won his past seven fights, and will be looking at receiving a Bantamweight title shot against champion Dominick Cruz should he pull out a victory Saturday night, so motivation shouldn’t be an issue.
Prediction: Dillashaw keeps the pressure on Dominick Cruz with a decision victory, setting up a potential rematch with the champ.
#6 “Bigg Rigg” Johny Hendricks (17-4-0) vs. #12 Kelvin Gastelum (12-2-0)
This fight could go either way in terms of an entertainment perspective, as it could be a rumble, or it could be a grappling contest which throws off what I expect will be a lot of growing momentum built earlier in the night. There was a time where I’d expect Hendricks to walk across the octagon and try to take Gastelum’s head off with strikes, however that particular strategy hasn’t paid off lately, so it’s far more likely Hendricks uses his top-notch wrestling skills to put Gastelum against the cage and eventually, on the ground. Once Gastelum hits the ground, which I expect to happen repeatedly, he won’t have an answer for “Bigg Rigg”.
Prediction: Hendricks picks up a decision victory here.
#3 “Alpha” Cat Zingano (9-1-0) vs. #5 “The Venezuelan Vixen” Julianna Pena (8-2-0)
Lost a bit in the hype of the return of Brock Lesnar has been the UFC debut of Cat Zingano, and it should be a high-energy affair in this contest with ultra-aggressive Julianna Pena. While the resumes of these two women certainly appear lopsided, I expect Pena to hold her own in this one. Unfortunately for Pena, holding her own is the most I see her doing, as in analyzing this fight, it appears Zingano is marginally (or sometimes more than marginally) better than Pena in every area. Many fans will be expecting a buzzsaw-type performance from Zingano, but it seems much more likely that Zingano utilizes her grappling skills and wears Pena down until she’s able to finish her off. Fight fans have been clamoring for “Alpha” to step inside the octagon, and I expect that those who have been demanding it will not be disappointed on Saturday.
Decision: Cat Zingano wins her UFC debut by TKO
#2 Cain Velasquez (13-2-0) vs. #7 “Hapa” Travis Browne (18-3-1)
The first of five main card fights has the #2 Heavyweight contender in the world, Cain Velasquez. That’s how ridiculous this card truly is. That being said, don’t expect “Hapa” to be a pushover, because as we’ve come to know as MMA fans, in the Heavyweight division, all it takes is one punch. Browne is a dangerous fighter who will not be afraid to stand and trade with Velasquez, but will need to avoid the clinch and takedown game from Velasquez, as when healthy, Cain’s endurance and stamina is as good or better than any Heavyweight in the world. One thing we’ve seen from Velasquez is that it takes a bevy of punches to get to him, and he’s rarely taken out by a single punch, ignoring the JDS fight of course. Browne will need to find a way to control the pace and avoid ending up on his back to have a real shot in this one, but there are always questions surrounding Velasquez’s health. Have all of Cain’s injuries negatively affected him, or is he ready to reestablish himself as the top contender in the Heavyweight division?
Prediction: Cain Velasquez wins this one via ground & pound TKO.
Interim Featherweight Championship
#1 “Junior” Jose Aldo (25-2-0) vs. “The Answer” Frankie Edgar (19-4-1)
Looking at the entire UFC 200 card, this may be the toughest fight to predict. We haven’t seen Jose Aldo in the octagon since his quick defeat to Conor McGregor, while Frankie Edgar has been dominating at 145 ever since losing to (guess who?), Jose Aldo. In their first fight, the strike count was excessively low for both fighters, which is a product of both of their styles, but leads to the most technical and precise fighter having the advantage. At this point in their careers, I give the edge technically to Edgar, which may just be enough to give him the victory as well. I’m expecting a very technical and tightly contested fight between these two, as Edgar will likely be unable to truly capitalize on his wrestling skills, and Aldo may need to show he’s willing to be more aggressive with his strikes to catch the elusive Edgar. Will Aldo be hesitant after getting caught by McGregor in such a dramatic and crushing way? Or will Aldo show off his world-class skills and return to his dominant ways?
Prediction: Edgar narrowly wins by decision, mainly by out working Aldo
Women’s Bantamweight Championship
(C) Miesha “Cupcake” Tate (18-5-0) vs. #4 “The Lioness” Amanda Nunes (12-4-0)
Miesha Tate fought a long road to the top of the Women’s Bantamweight division, and now gets to reap the benefits of those efforts by being showcased in a major main event on the biggest UFC card of all-time, but she has a real test in front of her in Amanda Nunes. My biggest fear since Ronda Rousey lost the title to Holly Holm was that once Rousey’s dominance was ended, the belt would begin to resemble “Hot Potato”, and the credibility of the division may take a hit, and that fear began to take hold when Holm succumbed to Tate. Now, heading into Saturday night, Tate will need to push the pace (something she’s very good at), and push Nunes’ cardio, as Nunes will be in uncharted territory in a five round contest. Despite outlasting Valentina Shevchenko in her last fight, Nunes’ reputation is one of either winning quickly or losing, often coming out strong in round one and fading after that. If she continues that trend Saturday night, she stands no chance, as Tate is too tough to be taken out early, and Tate’s already shown the ability to endure for five rounds and continue her uptempo attack. Nunes will need to have improved her cardio, and will need to get the better of “Cupcake” on the feet in order to have a shot at upsetting the champion.
Prediction: Miesha retains the title and awaits the winner of (hopefully) a Holm/Rousey rematch down the line.
Brock Lesnar (5-3-0) vs. #8 “Super Samoan” Mark Hunt (12-10-1)
Mark Hunt has been on quite a roll in the Heavyweight division, defying the effects of age and time and knocking out Frank Mir in his previous fight. He’s shown that his power rivals that of any fighter on the planet, and that his power isn’t disappearing anytime soon. Hunt’s takedown defense is also often underrated, and helps keep Hunt in his wheelhouse: standing on the feet, throwing bombs. Lesnar never showed a great chin, and if Hunt catches Lesnar, is could be a disastrous night for the NCAA champion Lesnar. Add in the fact that Hunt has had nine fights since Lesnar’s exit from the UFC, and Lesnar’s still lacking MMA experience base, and this fight begins to look quite lopsided.
All of that being said, Brock Lesnar is going to win this fight.
I appear to be in the minority here, but I simply believe that while Hunt does have quality takedown defense, Lesnar is a two-time NCAA All-American wrestler and a NCAA Heavyweight Wrestling champion, and will be able to get Hunt to the ground without much difficulty. Is it possible Hunt catches him as Lesnar shoots in? Sure, but I’m not expecting that. Rather, I expect Lesnar to take Hunt to the ground, and once that occurs, Hunt is stuck there, and Lesnar has always shown an affinity for ground and pound. You’re either in the camp that Lesnar’s diverticulitis truly hamstrung his UFC career, and that he’s finally at 100% as he makes his return this Saturday, or you believe that Lesnar’s a wannabe MMA fighter coming from the world of professional wrestling who will be taught a lesson by the veteran Mark Hunt. I’m solidly in the pro-Lesnar camp here, and I believe he’s going to prove a lot of people wrong this coming Saturday.
Prediction: Lesnar wins by TKO in Round 1.